Sunday, March 15, 2009
Handicapping 2009 LS Polls
The details are still in flux, but as the dust settles we are getting a clearer picture of the contest in the 2009 Lok Sabha. We have 3 fronts, the UPA, the NDA and the 3rd Front fighting it out. Who will come out victorious ?
For the sake of my analysis I the following, which are strictly not true. The SP is in effectively alliance with the UPA, the BSP and BJD are part of the 3rd Front.
All three fronts will have a hard time cobbling together the numbers to form a governments. The only front that can get an absolute majority even best case scenario is the UPA which could hit 280 seats. The NDA can only win 225 seats in its best case scenario, while the 3rd Front can win a maximum of 170 seats in the best case. I have included spreadsheets reflecting the best case scenario for each alliance.
However, this does not necessarily mean that the UPA is most likely to form the goverment after the elections. This is because the UPA also has the highest "magic number". The "magic number" is defined as the minimum number of seats the alliance needs to win to pull together a post poll coalition that has a majority.
The UPA "magic number" is 245. If the UPA gets less than 245 it will struggle to find allies to achieve a majority in a post poll scenario. In fact, the only possible post poll ally is AIADMK (if it does much better than DMK). The Communists and BSP do not seem likely and the rest are impossible. So the UPA can lose about 35 seats from its best case scenario and still form the goverment.
However, the NDA "magic number" may be as low as 215 as the AIADMK, TDP, BJP and even possibly BSP can help the NDA cobble together a majority. So NDA can get 10 seats below its best case scenario and still form the goverment.
The 3rd Front has the lowest "magic number" of 200, but their problem is that the 3rd Front cannot get 200 seats in even the most optimistic scenario.
Let the fun begin ...